What to expect from the Arabs , nothing but stupidity as they are more well verse in the art of hatred , killing , riding camels and destroying themselves than for intelligence

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HOW OPEC SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT

At the start of March, we showed a fascinating chart from Rystad Energy, demonstrating how dramatic the impact of technological efficiency on collapsing U.S. shale production costs has been: in just the past 3 years, the wellhead breakeven price for key shale plays has collapsed from an average of $80 to the mid-$30s…

… resulting in drastically lower all-in breakevens for most U.S. shale regions.

Today, in a note released by Goldman titled “OPEC: To cut or not to cut, that is the question”, the firm presents a chart which shows exactly how OPEC lost the war against U.S. shale. The cost curve has massively flattened and extended as a result of “shale productivity,” driving oil breakeven in the U.S. from $80 to $50-$55, in the process sweeping Saudi Arabia away from the post of global oil price setter to a mere inventory manager.

This is how Goldman explains it:

Shale’s short time to market and ongoing productivity improvements have provided an efficient answer to the industry’s decade-long search for incremental hydrocarbon resources in technically challenging, high cost areas and has kicked off a competition amongst oil producing countries to offer attractive enough contracts and tax terms to attract incremental capital. This is instigating a structural deflationary change in the oil cost curve, as shown in Exhibit 2. This shift has driven low cost OPEC producers to respond by focusing on market share, ramping up production where possible, using their own domestic resources or incentivizing higher activity from the international oil companies through more attractive contract structures and tax regimes. In the rest of the world, projects and countries have to compete for capital, trying to drive costs down to become competitive through deflation and potentially lower tax rates.

The implications of this curve shift are major, all of which are very averse to the Saudis, who have been relegated from the post of long-term price setter to inventory manager, and thus, the loss of leverage. Here are some further thoughts from Goldman:Related: The Oil Market Is At A Major Turning Point

OPEC role: We believe OPEC’s role has structurally changed from long-term price setter to inventory manager. In the past, large-scale developments required seven years+ from FID to peak production, giving OPEC long-term control over oil prices. U.S. shale oil currently offers large-scale development opportunities with 6-9 months to peak production. This short-cycle opportunity has structurally changed the cost dynamics, eliminating the need for high cost frontier developments and instigating a competition for capital amongst oil producing countries that is lowering and flattening the cost curve through improved contract terms and taxes.

OPEC’s November decision had unintended consequences: OPEC’s decision to cut production was rational and fit into the inventory management role. Inventory builds led to an extreme contango in the Brent forward curve, with 2-year fwd Brent trading at a US$5.5/bl (11 percent) premium to spot. As OPEC countries sell spot, but US E&Ps sell 30 percent or more of their production forward, this was giving the E&Ps a competitive advantage. Within one month of the OPEC announcement, the contango declined to US$1.1/bl (2 percent), achieving the cartel’s purpose. However, the unintended consequence was to underwrite shale activity through the credit market.

Stability and credit fuel overconfidence and strong activity: A period of stability (1 percent Brent Coefficient of Variation ytd vs. 6 percent 3-year average) has allowed E&Ps to hedge (35 percent of 2017 oil production vs. 21 percent in November) and access the credit market, with high yield reopen after a 10- month closure (largest issuance in 4Q16 since 3Q14). Successful cost repositioning and abundant funding are boosting a short-cycle revival, with 0.85 percent of oil companies under our coverage increasing capex in 2017.

That said, the new equilibrium only works as long as credit is cheap and plentiful. If and when the Fed’s inevitable rate hikes tighten credit access for shale firms, prompting the need for higher margins and profits, the old status quo will revert. As a reminder, this is how, over a year ago, Citi explained the dynamic of cheap credit leading to deflation and lower prices:Related: Oil Has Room To Fall As Speculators Bail On Bullish Bets

Easy access to capital was the essential “fuel” of the shale revolution. But too much capital led to too much oil production, and prices crashed. The shale sector is now being financially stress-tested, exposing shale’s dirty secret: many shale producers depend on capital market injections to fund ongoing activity because they have thus far greatly outspent cash flow.

This is the key ingredient of what Goldman calls the shift to a new “structural deflationary change in the oil cost curve” as shown in chart above. As such, there is the danger that tighter conditions will finally remove the structural pressure for lower prices. However, judging by recent rhetoric by FOMC members, this is hardly an imminent issue, which means Saudi Arabia has only bad options: either cut production – prompting higher prices, even greater shale incursion, and market share loss for the Kingdom- or, restore the old status quo, sending prices far lower, and in the process, collapsing Saudi government revenues, potentially unleashing another budget crisis.

– http://oilprice.com

CANNOT EVEN WIN IN YOUR FATHER’S DIVISION IN KELANTAN, YET YOU WANT TO TAKE OVER SELANGOR – AZMIN MOCKS NIK ABDUH

PAS is only surviving because it is on life support from UMNO. The PAS members are deserting the party day by day  and come PRU 14 GE 14 PAS will be no more. It is like a leper now and soon UMNO will ditch it also. If you look at the lost of Nik Abduh , PAS leadership have only 20% of the PAS memebers support left and UMNO knows it well and if tie up with PAS than UMNO will also lose another 30% of their members support as UMNO members hate PAS from the day one for imposing their so called values on the Party loving UMNO members

lebai” (person in skull cap) who aspires to take over reigns of Selangor, yet have lost big in his own backyard.

While he did not name anyone, his tweet came soon after PAS Youth chief Nik Mohamad Abduh Nik Abdul Aziz told the media that PAS had once supported PKR to lead the Selangor government after the last election, but that sentiment has changed.
Incidentally, Nik Abduh was recently trounced at the Pengkalan Chepa PAS division election when he challenged incumbent Izani Husin as the division’s deputy leader.

Nik Abduh’s father Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat was once a long time leader of the Pengkalan Chepa PAS division.

Talk on PAS’ ambitions in Selangor began after a video clip of PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang describing the party’s goal of leading the state governments in Selangor, Terengganu, Kedah, Perak and Kelantan.

The same video clip also depicted Abdul Hadi explaining why some cooperation was needed with Umno to ensure that Islam remains “politically dominant” in Malaysia.

PAS’ former allies PKR and DAP have yet to respond to this development in earnest.

– M’kini

MOTHER OF FAKE DEGREES! BERSATU CANDIDATE FOR PEKAN EXPOSES NAJIB – HE DIDN’T SIT FOR HIS FINAL EXAMS, HOW CAN HE GET NOTTINGHAM UNI DEGREE?

Abdul Rahman Mohd Noor is the Pribumi Candidate for Pekan. He served as the student attache in London and looked after Tun Razak in the last three weeks of Tun’s life in London najib razak was then studying at the University of Nottingham.

Abdul Rahman tells us “hence I am aware that after his father’s death, najib remained in Malaysia without sitting for his final exams in Nottingham”

We have been told that najib attended Malvern College in Worcestershire, England, and subsequently went to the University of Nottingham, where he received a bachelor’s degree in industrial economics in 1974.

If najib razak did not sit for his final examination at the University of Nottingham how then was he able to get a bachelor degree in industrial economics in 1974?

– http://steadyaku-steadyaku-husseinhamid.blogspot.my

NAJIB & ROSMAH SNIGGER AS JHO LOW HIDES BEHIND HIS GRANDFATHER: THE LOW FAMILY EXPOSED – A BILLION DOLLAR FORTUNE FOUNDED BY DATO LOW MENG TAK

The Low Family Fortune: But Why Only Larry Low, His Children & Wife Claim To Be Beneficiaries Of The Family Fortune…

This was one of the earlier stories which attempted to explain Jho Low’s sudden wealth:

THE Low family fortune was built by its patriarch the late Datuk Low Meng Tak. The family fortune was consolidated in 2008 into a global family trust for estate planning purposes.

Yet it is only Larry Low and family who claim to be beneficiaries of the family assets. 

While it is true that the assets involved are held via different trusts, and while it may be possible that these assets were financed by Larry Low from his personal wealth, built on his entitlement or share of the earnings of the Low Meng Tuck global family trust, it is safe to say that only PM Najib and his loyal deputies believe that fairy tale.

– http://realpolitikasia.blogspot.my

NAJIB’S ‘GLARING DISTRUST’ FOR ANIFAH A SLAP FOR SABAH UMNO: WHY IS WISMA PUTRA SIDELINED IN N.KOREA ROW WHILE IGP, APANDI, OTHER MINISTERS TAKE CENTRE STAGE

Malaysia-North Korea Diplomatic Row–Wisma Putra left out of the loop as confusion reigns. Is Foreign Minister Anifah Aman  being left out the loop?

In just one day, the continuing confusion and conflicting messaging relating to the ongoing standoff with North Korea was aptly captured on a single page of a local newspaper. It suggests a disquieting level of disarray in the upper reaches of government at a time when the security and well-being of Malaysian diplomats and their families in Pyongyang are in question.

t the top corner of the page was a statement by Attorney-General Mohammad Apandi Ali that “no minister or government official is allowed to make any statement on the negotiations between Putrajaya and Pyongyang” due to its sensitive nature. He indicated that only Prime Minster Najib Tun Razak would be commenting on the issue because “if too many people make statements about the matter, it will cause confusion.”

Too many statements, too much confusion

What Games are these guys playing?

That did not, however, appear to deter others from having their say, as was evident from other reports on the same page.Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi and Tourism Minister Nazri Aziz publicly disagreed with each other as to exactly how many North Koreans are in Malaysia under the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) Programme. Zahid, who also oversees the Immigration Department, and ought to have access to the relevant data, had said that there were 193 North Koreans in Malaysia under MM2H while Nazri insists that only four are enrolled in the programme.

What does it say about inter-agency coordination if the Home Minister and the Tourism Minister cannot even agree on just how many North Koreans are here?

Still on the same page, Zahid announced that the government is considering deporting some North Korean citizens who are still in the country. He said that there are currently 315 North Koreans still in the country and some of them have expired work visas. “I will make a decision today whether to arrest or deport them,” he was quoted as saying.

Arrest North Korean citizens while Malaysian diplomats are being held hostage in Pyongyang? How smart is that? Zahid also intimated that thus far the government has yet to receive any official request from the next-of-kin to claim Jong-nam’s body. He then went on to add that “if there is a claim, we will adopt several approaches and obtain confirmation from the Attorney-General’s chambers on the handling of the remains.”

How one adopts several approaches when dealing with a single body was not explained.

Who speaks for the deceased?

Attorney-General Apandi Ali–The new Foreign Policy spokesperson? If so, Anifah Aman should resign

Our Health Minister, in the meantime, whose role, if any, was confined to the autopsy, was reported, again on the aforementioned page, to have indicated that the government is giving two to three weeks for the family to claim the body before it decides on the next course of action. “We are told that he has wives and children. We hope that they respond and come forward to claim the body.” Continuing, he said that if the family does not come forward to claim the body, “we will address it as a government-to-government matter.”

To further add to the confusion, the Deputy Inspector-General of Police announced the next day that the next-of-kin had in fact left it to the government to decide what to do with the remains of the victim.

We have our advantages 

And finally, the Defence Minister, perhaps feeling neglected by the press, issued a fatuous statement declaring that while “we can’t fight a country like North Korea which focuses so much on defence assets … we have our advantages which will allow us to move forward in any eventuality.” Reassuringly, he also “ruled out the possibility of both countries going to war as negotiations have been positive.”

Was war with North Korea ever even a remote possibility? As well, it is hard to fathom what negotiations he was even referring to seeing as none have as yet taken place (according to the Prime Minister).

Who’s in charge?

Both Malaysians and foreigners alike reading all these reports must be shaking their heads in utter bewilderment at the way our government works.

Leaving aside the sometimes asinine nature of these remarks, don’t they realize that nine of our own diplomats and their families are being held hostage by a reckless, ruthless and unpredictable regime and that in such a situation quiet diplomacy must be given the time and the space to go forward?

With the well-being of our citizens at stake, they should know better than to try to score brownie points with unnecessary if not silly remarks.

Most of these issues – the disposal of the body, the fate of North Korean citizens in the country, the future bilateral relationship – are undoubtedly going to feature in the negotiations between Wisma Putra and the North Korean mission here; it only makes Wisma Putra’s job that much harder if our ministers keep jumping in this way. One has to wonder as well how much weight the Prime Minister’s instructions now carry and even whether the Prime Minister has lost control over his own cabinet.

How not to manage a crisis

Of course, it may be that the remarks of our ministers were somehow misreported. The general decline in professional standards that is increasingly evident across the board naturally affects the media as well. However, having witnessed too many silly statements on this and other matters over the years from our senior officials, it is more than likely that the fault lies with the officials themselves.

Whatever it is, somebody ought to write a book on how not to manage a crisis based on Malaysia’s continuing response to our very own North Korean saga.

DENNIS IGNATIUS

– https://dinmerican.wordpress.com

BOMBSHELL – JHO LOW CALLS NAJIB HIS ‘CAPTAIN’ BUT NO USE: U.S. TO UNLEASH 1MDB PERFECT STORM – CRIMINAL CHARGES ON JHO LOW TO BE FILED, NEXT RIZA AZIZ?

BOMBSHELL – JHO LOW CALLS NAJIB HIS ‘CAPTAIN’ BUT NO USE: U.S. TO UNLEASH 1MDB PERFECT STORM – CRIMINAL CHARGES ON JHO LOW TO BE FILED, NEXT RIZA AZIZ?

US authorities intend to file criminal charges against flamboyant financier Jho Low, according to people familiar with the investigation, but haven’t disclosed the potential timing, The Wall Street Journal reported.

US authorities intend to file the criminal charges against the young Malaysian businessman in connection with an international scandal involving 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) that they believe could be one of the largest financial frauds ever, according to people familiar with the matter,

The civil suits, which are proceeding separately from the criminal probe, seek more than US$1 billion of assets, including van Gogh and Monet paintings and luxury real estate in New York and Los Angeles, allegedly bought with stolen money. The Justice Department is currently seeking to add recently discovered Low family property to the list of assets it is trying to seize, including a yacht Jho Low controls, the US$165 million, 300-foot, helipad-equipped Equanimity, WSJ reported.

In addition, Singapore has been building a potential criminal case against Jho Low, said a person involved in the city-state’s investigation. A Justice DKepartment team has just finished a visit to Singapore to conduct interviews related to Jho Low and other aspects of the 1MDB matter, said two people familiar with the trip.

Jho Low, whose full name is Low Taek Jho, and his lawyers didn’t respond to requests for comment. Previously, Jho Low had said he was the victim of political infighting in Malaysia and was only an informal adviser to 1MDB. His family members are taking legal action to fight the US asset-seizure lawsuits.

Jho Low, a 35-year-old known for hanging out with Hollywood celebrities and hosting lavish parties in Las Vegas and elsewhere, struck a confident tone in a New Year’s message to friends this January. “2016 was the Perfect Storm; but the calmness and resolve of our Captain, led his loyal Sailors whom placed their lives with utmost trust in his leadership weathered the storm,” Mr. Low wrote in a WeChat message viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “The men and women that came out of the storm were not the same men that walk in. Through struggle, they established new strengths they never knew they collectively had,” he wrote.

“The very moment they were brought to their knees, and their world was about to fall apart,” Mr. Low added, “their Captain’s exemplary leadership gided them to safety; and through this experience, they achieve a new level of humility, nobility and higher intelligence ready to set sail for greater achievements in 2017 for their people!”

Since the US filed its asset-seizure suits, which are against the assets themselves and don’t name people as defendants, Mr. Low has largely disappeared from public view. He has deleted some email accounts, changed phones regularly and avoided the US, said people familiar with his movements.

With his bank accounts frozen by several countries — and Jho. Low warned by officials in Malaysia to stay away, according to people familiar with the matter — the financier has mainly been living in China and Thailand, said those familiar with his comings and goings. At the Peninsula Hotel in Shanghai, a staff member last year described Jho Low as a long-term resident. Jho Low’s yacht has been moored in Thai waters since October, WSJ reported.

The Equanimity recently was berthed for around 40 nights at the Ao Po Grand Marina on the Thai resort island of Phuket, records show, at a cost of about $20,000, part of it settled from a baht account at Bangkok Bank. The bank and the marina manager declined to comment.

The US’s prosecution plans, which could change or be dropped as its investigation continues, involve filing criminal charges of wire fraud and money laundering against Jho Low and potentially some of his associates, said people familiar with the probe. They didn’t describe the potential timing. To obtain an indictment, prosecutors would present evidence to a grand jury, which would need to agree the government had probable cause to believe a law had been broken.

Any charges could increase pressure on Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who set up 1MDB and was close to Jho Low.

The US asset-seizure suits refer to a “Malaysian Official 1” that the suits allege received hundreds of millions of dollars siphoned from 1MDB.

Najib has denied any wrongdoing. Early last year, Malaysia’s attorney general said large deposits in his accounts were a donation from a member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family and most was returned. Attempts to contact Najib for this article were unsuccessful. The 1MDB fund itself has also denied wrongdoing and pledged cooperation with investigators.

Amid the growing pressure, Jho Low has taken inspiration from “The King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich, ” according to people who have discussed the book with him. The late Mr. Rich was a commodities trader indicted in the US on tax evasion and other charges who lived without arrest for decades in Switzerland, then was pardoned by President Bill Clinton in 2001.

THE EDGE

PKR man calls for thorough investigation into toddler’s death - Why bother as the Government is not going to take action against their own

Why bother as the Government is not going to take action against their own and they protect their own kind. It all boils down to race and religion and poor Laraniya as much as I grief for her but this is the type of careless attitude that the Non-Malays faced at the hands of the superior race in the civil service or think others are lesser human beings. Come judgment day may they burn in hell as their only savior is the devil itself and not God?

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Laraniya Wilbert, who died on Monday at the Tengku Ampuan Rahimah Hospital, Klang was said to be alive when she arrived at the hospital, contrary to the details in her death certificate

KUALA LUMPUR: PKR Kapar MP G Manivannan today called for the police and home ministry to conduct a thorough investigation on a suspicious death of a toddler at the Tengku Ampuan Rahimah Hospital in Klang on Monday.

Four-year-old Laraniya Wilbert, who died at the hospital, was said to be alive when she arrived at the hospital contrary to the details in her death certificate.

“After speaking to the mother, I found out that there exist elements which should be refined and investigated thoroughly.

“Investigations needed to be conducted as there exist proof that the situation experienced by the mother differs from the one written on Laraniya’s death certificate,” he said.

Speaking at a press conference at the media room in Parliament, Manivannan who just returned from visiting Laraniya’s family said the mother was sure that she saw her daughter’s stomach moving when she changed her daughter’s diaper after reaching the hospital.

Manivannan also pointed out that the death certificate states the cause of death was ‘pending laboratory investigations’, despite the completion of the post mortem.

He said Laraniya’s mother was informed by the hospital that a period of three months was required before they can be informed of the cause of death.

“Why did the hospital returned the decease to family if the cause of death was still uncertain? Is this practice a Standard Operational Procedure in line with that of the health ministry?

“Why is the hospital being defensive and doesn’t practice a more open approach?” he asked.

Besides calling for a through and immediate investigations, Manivannan also urged that the officers on duty, nurses and doctors involved be suspended until investigation was done