Could Theresa blow it? Shock poll predicts Tories could LOSE their majority. Survey suggests Labour could GAIN up to 30 seats

Shock poll has found Theresa May could lose her overall majority in the election

YouGov suggests the Tories could lose 20 seats while Labour could gain 30

This would mean the Conservatives falling short of an overall majority by 16

Sources in main parties cast doubt on findings as pound dipped over uncertainty

By Daniel Martin Policy Editor For The Daily Mail and James Tapsfield, Political Editor For Mailonline

Theresa May could lose her overall majority in next week's election, according to a shock new poll.

The first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the result by YouGov suggests the Tories could lose 20 seats and Labour could gain 30.

It would mean the Conservatives falling short of an overall majority by 16.



This would be a catastrophic outcome for the Prime Minister, who called the election when the polls were massively in her favour.

YouGov is sticking by its controversial new modelling technique, despite sources in both main parties casting doubt on the findings.

The dramatic findings caused consternation in financial markets, with the pound losing ground against the US dollar and euro this morning. A solid Tory victory had previously been 'priced in' by traders, but polls have shown the race narrowing.

Theresa May, pictured campaigning in Plymouth today, could lose her overall majority in next week's election, according to a shock new poll

The YouGov findings contradict every other survey during the campaign so far, suggesting Theresa May faces losing her majority rather than extending it

Theresa May says the only poll that matters is the one on June 8

Mrs May has taken to repeatedly warning that if she loses just six seats, she would lose her majority - handing the keys of Number 10 to Jeremy Corbyn.

The Conservatives' poll rating has fallen in recent days thanks to the unpopularity of the manifesto plans for social care.

The PM's core offer of 'strong and stable' leadership was undermined when she was forced to say that care costs for pensioners will be capped.

Mrs May played down anxieties over the survey today, saying the 'only poll that matters is the one that is going to take place on 8th June'.

'I have a plan for the Brexit negotiations but I have also got a plan to build a stronger and more prosperous Britain,' she said during a campaign visit to Plymouth.


YouGov's model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats - down from the 330 they had when the election was called.

Labour would get 257 - up from 229, while the Liberal Democrats would gain one to 10.

The modelling allows for big variations, suggesting the Tories could get as high as 345, up 15 - and as low as 274.

The results would still make it harder for Mr Corbyn to become Prime Minister than Mrs May.

Theresa May met with workers as she visited the Plymouth fisheries today

Mrs May played down the significance of the YouGov research, saying the 'only poll that matters is the one on June 8'

Mrs May, pictured yesterday, is hoping to extend her working majority in the Commons, which currently stands at 17

'Shocking' General Election polls and projections for May 31

YouGov admitted the results were controversial, pointing to significant 'churn' in voting intentions.

But its chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign - and always showed Leave ahead.

The model is based on 50,0000 interviews over the course of a week.

Last night both Tories and Labour cast doubt over the findings.

And other pollsters such as ComRes and ICM both report that the Conservatives are still way ahead.

The pound dipped sharply against the US dollar overnight after the poll emerged

Jeremy Corbyn, pictured at a press conference in London today, endured a difficult day yesterday but will be encouraged by YouGov's model