My prediction for GE14

My prediction for GE14

 

UMNO vote bank will be divided between UMNO Bersatu and PAS as all three are using race and religion to bait for decreasing conservative base in the Malay heartland and more Malays are becoming increasingly progressive and see economic stability and prosperity is their future and wellbeing of their future generations survival and wellbeing. Amanah presents that home which also safe Guards race and religion in a more pragmatic way which is more acceptable to Malaysia as a whole. PAS is going to lose Kelantan and will have a few state seats in Kedah and Terengganu and no presence in other states because the increase in seats won by PAS in GE12 and GE13 was with the help of non-Malays and these voters are not going to return to vote PAS in a million years. The PAS grassroots on the majority hold the present PAS leadership in contempt as they have done in actions and works all the opposite of the revered late TGNA and will vote with their feet for Amanah and support the opposition candidates where possible. The consider the present PAS leadership as traitors to TGNA legacy of universal love for all Humans as he have said it once too often that we are of one race and must love each other and live in peace

 

 

1. Perlis is going BN

 

2. Penang will have BN lose more state and Parliament seats

 

3. Kedah - PAS will lose the gains of GE12 and GE13 and Umno may win maximum 4 or 5 state seats and 2 parliament seats. Bersatu will win the seats lost by UMNO and DAP wins in urban Alor Setar and PKR retains its seats and Amanah wins all the seats lost by PAS. State government in Bersatu led government.

 

4. Perak - due to Umno infighting , UMNO is going to lose 10 state and 3 parliament seats to Bersatu and PAS will he wiped out totally as the non-Malays and PAS supports and progressive Malays will vote Amanah .DAP will increase their state and Parliament seat counts wiping MCA MIC and Gerakan from Perak as same as Penang. State government will be Amanah led government

 

5. Selangor - Total win out of PAS to Amanah. PKR will increase their state seat count by 2. Or 3 seats and Bersatu will win 4 or 5 state seats and BN Umno will be left with maximum 5 state seats and one parliament seat thanks to Jamal Yunos factor. MCA will be wiped out. State government will be led by PKR

 

6. FT Kuala Lumpur will be total route of BN and all Parliament seats will fall to opposition and the is because of City Hall not representing the majority who voted opposition and implementing only BN friendly policy when the KL voters have voted Opposition and have no representation as in City Hall

 

7. Negeri Sembilan - BN UMNO will win maximum 7 to 20 state seats and maximum 3 Parliament seats or less. Here interesting as DAP will put up Malay candidates for state seats in 3 or 5 state seats .DAP PLR will increase seat count. Amanah wins PAS seats and Bersatu wins seats lost. The Head of state is a pragmatic ruler and will be open to a MB of Malay heritage to be the First DAP MB in a state ruled by a Malay ruler

 

8. Malacca - Betsatu is going to win Big at the expense of UMNO and other opposition parties will increase the state seats. State government will be a Bersatu led state Government

 

9. Johor - will remain a BN led state government with drastically reduced state seats with a majority of 5 seats and BN will only win maximum 7 Parliament seats . There is unease of in Johor. Less analysis on this state is best for personal health but it may surprise all by having a state government led by Amanah. Do not want to write detail

Analysis but my hunch it is going to be an opposition led government

 

10. Pahang a lot of damaged done by logging which contribute to greater flooding in the Malay hinterland and also distribution of flood and welfare aid on political lines and cause Alor of unease in villages where some Do nothing have big houses cars money to spend and others hard working people who just make ends meet after toiling in the sun whole day. This is battlefield of honest people of the land who toil the land and the others who don't judge thing but are rich because of their political connections and Sapu the aid for the villager’s .MCA Gerakan and MIC totally wiped out. The development very unequal in this state. Unpopular state government. Do not want to spoil the surprise and it is going to be a very big surprise in the state

 

11. Terengganu - UMNO and PAS will doing battle royal and fighting for the ever decreasing conservative votes. Terengganu have been very hard hit by the falling oil prices and jobless among the general population and ever more youth entering the job market yearly. I have worked here for some time and know the local sentiments and they always never had much of a choice between UMNO and PAS and now thinks have changed with Amanah and Bersatu. PKR here is weak. The Malays here now have a real choice between living in dark ages or modern times with jobs and better facilities. The implementation of short sighted religious laws is increasingly striping away the youth’s freedom and they are getting restless being told what they can do and can do. State to watch as there is an Ahmad Said factor also. Bersatu will be a big winner expense of UMNO and Amanah will win some state seats from PAS and PKR wining a few seats DAP wining Kuala Terengganu to help Bersatu form the state seat

 

 

12. Kelantan is one political animal very hard to predict but they my analysis meetings Kelantan people in out and in state , they feel very betrayed by the present  PAS leaderships to TGNA legacy and here BN Umno will make inroads in PAS seats wining some and Amanah showing a stronger performance. Here PAS leadership will be punished very severely for trashing TGNA legacy. The state government will be UMNO led with majority of 2 to 4 seats

 

13. Sarawak - As no elections - the opposition will win between 8 to 14 Parliament seats with DAP between 5 to 8 and PKR 3 to 7 seats. Sarawak prefer BN state Government and with no state election constraints with Hudud encroaching to Sarawak, the voters will try to make their mark by voting opposition to change the federal government for the better

 

14. Sabah - no doubt what Berjaya did to USNO and what PBS did to Berjaya. Warisan is going to do to the same to BN UMNO in state and Parliament elections. There will be a lot of high profile defections from BN as Warisan will soon concluded seat allocations in secret with the BN political animals. Here no surprises as opposition will contribute between 14 to18 Parliament seats.

 

15. Putrajaya - civil servant will punish the fake Tengku big time

 

 

Federal government will be a Bersatu led government with possibly two third majority which will help to repeal unpopular laws. This elections will be elections to end elections of race and religion as a political slogan and a party policy tool to entice voters.

 

BN and UMNO will not survive after this election as courts and prisons will be busy