Countdown
to catastrophe: It's a nightmare scenario. But as the war of words between
Russia and the U.S. cranks up, historian DOMINIC SANDBROOK imagines the very
worst
The date is Wednesday, April 12 and in Moscow, U.S. Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson is all business.
After days of mounting tension
following the first American air strike against President Bashar al-Assad’s
forces in Syria — in response to the suspected poison gas attack on the town of
Khan Sheikhun, which killed 87 civilians — America’s top diplomat has arrived
to clear the air.
Earlier in the week he met British
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and his G7 counterparts in Italy to discuss
fresh sanctions if Russia persisted in its support of Assad’s brutal regime.
This is Dominic Sandbrook's disturbing account of how the events leading up to Armageddon might play out
Tillerson, the former chief executive
of ExxonMobil who has famously close Russian contacts, is seen as the ideal man
to calm growing antagonism between Moscow and Washington.
But even as he is shaking hands with
the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, events are spiralling towards
disaster.
Within days, relations between Russia
and the U.S. have plunged to their worst depths since the Cuban Missile Crisis
55 years earlier.
Then, the world had stood briefly on
the brink of Armageddon. At the last moment, the leaders of the two great
superpowers stepped back from the edge. But in April 2017, the outcome is
chillingly different.
In this disturbing account, historian
Dominic Sandbrook imagines how, all too easily, events might play out ...
SECOND U.S. AIRSTRIKE
Emboldened by Russia’s bellicose
rhetoric after the first U.S. air strike in early April, Bashir al-Assad has no
intention of scaling down his onslaught against dwindling resistance from the
Free Syrian Army and Islamist rebels to claim victory in the six-year civil
war.
On April 12 there is another chemical
attack, this time targeting the rebel-held city of Idlib in north-western
Syria, near the Turkish border. Once again, the West is horrified by claims it
is Assad’s forces that have used sarin gas, with scores of women and children
among the estimated 1,200 casualties, although independent confirmation is hard
to come by.
Russian frigates, fighter aircraft and tactical bombers are also
being deployed, with the goal of resisting what President Putin calls ‘the
unholy alliance of American imperialism and Islamic fascism’
Footage of victims fighting to breathe
dominate the news.
Barely 24 hours later, President Trump
authorises a second U.S. air strike on Syrian government positions. Some 70
Tomahawk missiles are fired from the USS Porter and USS Cole in the eastern
Mediterranean, while two dozen F/A-18 fighter jets, launched from the USS
George H.W. Bush, pound what the Pentagon calls ‘the heart of Assad’s brutal
war machine’ in Damascus.
In Washington, Mr Trump praises the
‘beautiful professionalism’ of the U.S. forces.
But in Damascus, where the government
claim the strike has killed 20 civilians, President Assad is already on the
telephone to his patron Vladimir Putin.
RUSSIAN ESCALATION
Within two hours, Rex Tillerson is on
his way back to America and the Kremlin releases a grim statement reminding the
rest of the world that it would respond militarily to any further breach of its
‘red lines’. It declares that Mr Trump has ‘unleashed the hounds of war’ and
warns that further U.S. strikes will provoke ‘a crisis of unparalleled
severity’.
The next day, President Putin announces
plans to send a further 7,500 Russian troops to Syria under the personal
command of Russia’s top general, Valery Vasilevich Gerasimov.
Russian frigates, fighter aircraft and
tactical bombers are also being deployed, with the goal of resisting what
President Putin calls ‘the unholy alliance of American imperialism and Islamic
fascism’. And in the meantime, Russia’s forces already in Syria step up their
offensive against the anti-Assad rebels, with Tupolev strategic bombers
pounding resistance positions in the northern part of the country.
TURKEY MOVES IN
Putin’s decision to escalate the
conflict further provokes Turkey’s authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, whose forces shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015.
Even as the world is digesting the
Kremlin’s statement, Erdogan, who has backed anti-Assad rebels, is approving
plans to send 50,000 troops to the Syrian border.
Two days later, Turkey’s top general,
Hulusi Akar, orders 25,000 men into Syria through the Jarablus and Azaz border
crossings, to secure a so-called ‘safe area’ and prevent incursions by Kurdish
forces.
+Caution
is not President Trump’s style, especially now, when he’s being egged on by
White House hawks on whom he relies for advice
Almost immediately there are reports of
bloody clashes underway between the Turkish Army and Kurdish, Islamic State and
pro-Assad forces.
As the ongoing situation in northern
Syria degenerates into scenes of anarchic mayhem and Turkey’s largest cities
are paralysed by protests, a wave of Islamic State terror attacks in Ankara and
Istanbul raise the temperature of the conflict still further.
THIRD U.S. AIRSTRIKE
In many Western capitals, the mood is
close to panic.
In London, where Theresa May remains
publicly supportive of the U.S. actions, there are rumours that she has
privately urged Trump to do everything possible to defuse the growing crisis.
But caution is not President Trump’s
style, especially now, when he’s being egged on by White House hawks on whom he
relies for advice.
When the CIA warns him Russian and
Syrian government forces are in danger of over-running rebel positions within
days, the President authorises a fresh wave of airstrikes from the U.S. Sixth
Fleet in the eastern Mediterranean, beginning late on the night of April 20.
Most of the Tomahawk missiles target military bases in Damascus but there are,
inevitably, civilian casualties. Yet the real disaster, is the death of nine
Russian ‘military advisers’, killed when a missile hits a building in the
government-held city of Homs. Crowds take to the streets in Moscow.
PUTIN & TRUMP CLASH
Putin addresses the Russian nation,
describing the third U.S. airstrike as ‘tantamount to a declaration of war’.
Earlier in the week Tillerson met British
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and his G7 counterparts in Italy to discuss
fresh sanctions if Russia persisted in its support of Assad’s brutal regime
He asserts he will never give in to
Western bullying and never withdraw Russian forces from Syria.
‘Peace hangs by a thread,’ he tells
Russia. ‘And my friend Donald should remember what happened to the last world
leader who dared to defy the Russian people. His name was Adolf Hitler.’
That remark touches a nerve. In the
small hours, Trump tweets questioning the Russian president’s virility.
Although quickly deleted, the damage is done and Moscow withdraws its
ambassador from the U.S.
The following day, April 22, Trump
address a worldwide audience from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach. Blaming
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for their ‘cowardice and appeasement’ in
Syria, he insists that ‘the days of American retreat’ are over. If Assad does
not step down in seven days, U.S. troops will remove him by force.
ENTER ISRAEL & IRAN
The mood in the Middle East is close to
hysteria. In Lebanon, there are riots on the streets of Beirut as Islamist
groups clash openly with security forces. On April 24, false rumours that
pro-Assad Islamist militant group Hezbollah is planning a coup set off two days
of bloody fighting.
Amid the chaos, Hezbollah launch raids
across the border with Israel. As the situation deteriorates, Israel’s Prime
Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, orders his army to occupy southern Lebanon and
‘eliminate once and for all the cancer of Islamic terrorist attacks on our
people’.
The Israeli action sends shockwaves
through Middle Eastern capitals — not least Tehran. Hezbollah’s patron, Iran, has
begun to airlift equipment and ‘advisers’ to its ally in Damascus.
Amid reports that the Iranian
government is planning a full-scale military response in both Lebanon and
Syria, Netanyahu orders his air force to launch pre-emptive strikes on Iranian
bases in Tehran and Shiraz, as well as two sites suspected to house the
remnants of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. Iran declares war on Israel. And
within hours of that, the U.S. and Turkey both declare war on Iran.
FOURTH U.S. STRIKE
Rolling news carries horrifying footage
of rocket strikes on Tel Aviv and Tehran, interspersed with reports of fighting
between Turkish and Russian troops in northern Syria. Perhaps even at this
stage, total disaster might be averted by leaders with greater perspective and self-discipline.
But Assad, Trump and Putin are all trapped by their own pride and bellicosity.
+5
In response, Trump authorises a fourth
airstrike, again launched from the Sixth Fleet but this time aided by six RAF
Tornado bombers from the British base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. Casualties include
several dozen Syrian civilians and 13 members of the Russian Army who had been
‘advising’ President Assad’s forces.
RUSSIA’S REVENGE
As the dust settles after the U.S.-led
raid, it seems for just a moment as though the Kremlin has blinked.
But three hours later, Putin delivers
his devastating reply.
Even as the Russian leader is telling
his people that ‘aggression will not be tolerated and will be swiftly
punished’, Tupolev strike bombers are streaking towards the U.S. Sixth Fleet.
By the time Putin has finished, clouds
of black smoke are rising over the stricken USS Porter. More than 150 crew are
killed.
President Trump responds predictably.
Perhaps no U.S. President could have resisted the march to Armageddon — but
surely none of his predecessors would have published the country’s declaration
of war on Russia on Twitter.
So now we find ourselves on the brink
of the one thing everyone feared, World War III, contested with weapons that
could destroy civilisation for ever.
Syria’s agony has become the world’s
tragedy — and it may be humanity itself that pays the ultimate price.
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