Post RU355 and how GE14 going to be played out

Post RU355 and how GE14 going to be played out and I have warned you but then again who listens

Most important is that 70 to 80% Malays are progressive and have been voting BN, PKR and DAP because of their secularism and maintain the multi-cultural identity of Malaysia which is the lynch pin and model for Malaysia’s economic success and do not want Malaysia turn into another Pakistan, Afghanistan where their generations will live in danger and without personal freedom. This PAS and UMNO did not take in consideration when they did RU355 Tango together

PAS going in as third force is on a suicide mission to destroy the opposition chances of winning the GE14 on Behalf of UMNO. The theory is that PAS will draw away the Malay conservative votes away from the PH opposition pack .This is a serious miscalculation as Pas is now with all only going to end up drawing away the Malay conservative votes from UMNO which normally is 30 to 40% of UMNO vote bank but that again only out of these 30 to 40% only 10 to 15% will vote PAS because of RU355. PAS tradional voters which are 90% PAS members will not vote BN because the members have indoctrinated the members that UMNO is the sworn enemy and this cannot be changed overnight. At least 40% of UMNO members are going to vote opposition and namely Pribumi and a lesser extend PKR and Amanah and some will even vote DAP because they are not happy the direction the present UMNO leadership is taking UMNO to with a tango with PAS their sworn enemy

PAS also is having a crisis of confidence on its own as 60 to 70% PAS members prescribe the present PAS leadership as traitors to the cause of PAS and also the legacy of TGNA. They 60 -70% see the present leadership been to comfy with UMNO and does not sit well with them. Out of the PAS 60 -70% votes 50% will go to Amanah and a lesser percentage to Pribumi and PKR

GE14, Pribumi needs to have candidates in all UMNO parliament seats in a 3 way contest between BN-UMNO against Pribumi and help from PAS to draw away some UMNO voters away. Pribumbi securing 35 to 45% of total votes in a 3 way contest will be enough to win the seats.

PKR is going to have an influx of UMNO and PAS members unhappy with their present leadership vote PKR. If PAS makes it 3 ways and that will more chances for PKR to win the seats. PKR also needs to secure 40 to 45% of the total votes cast in 3 way contest to win the seats.

DAP is also going to have a windfall of PAS and UMNO votes as PAS members have seen how DAP treated TGNA with dignity and can expect at least 20 to 30% PAS members voting DAP. In a 3 way contest between BN , DAP and PAS , DAP is going to have their chances improved because the Anti-DAP votes which will be in the region of 25 to 40% of the Malay votes in the constituency Dap is standing for will be split between BN-UMNO and PAS.

My conclusions that best that BN have an electoral pack openly with PAS to improve their chances of retaining their seats and winning more seats in GE14. PAS is an albatross around BN-UMNO’s neck and not the other way round. BN-UMNO instead of taking the GE14 battle to the opposition held seats made their own seats venerable and need to spend their precious resources defending their seats and also thanks to PAS RU255 which BN supported. I suspect PAS is a Trojan horse on a suicide mission to destroy BN-UMNO.

The main GE14 battle will be in West Malaysia and whoever wins the majority seats, the East Malaysian parties will support to form the Federal government. Warisan is an associate of PH with DAP and PKR will win the lion share of Sabah seats and it will be in the region of 18 out of the 25 seats contested due to the anti-Federal BN-UMNO sentiments or more . The Parin factor is going to one of the causes of BN-UMNO and PBS losing their seats in Sabah as Parin has quit PBS and will not stand for elections. Sarawak the DAP leaded PH with PKR and a surprised third party breaking away from Sarawak BN when GE 14 elections is announced will win at least 10 to 12 seats out of the 31 seats contested in Sarawak. This is due to RU355 and the playing up of the abductions of Christian Pastors. The Sarawak Christians take their religion seriously.

A total East Malaysian seat within reach of PH is 30 seats out of 56 seats contested in GE14 in Sabah and Sarawak.

Total GE14 Parliament seats to contest and 56 in East Malaysia and West Malaysia 166 seats

Kedah 15 seats and BN and PAS will win 7 maximum and 8 will be won by PH

Perlis 3 seats are all safely BN seats

Penang 13 seats and BN will win only 1 seat and PH will win 12 seats

Perak 24 seats – PH will retain 12 seats and win another 4 seats for total of 16 seats and BN will win 8 seats

Selangor – 22 seats and here is the surprise BN and PAS will end up with 4 seats or less among themselves and PH will win 18 seats

Negeri Sembilan - 8 seats and BN will win 4 seats and PH will win 4 seats

Melaka 6 seats and status quo = BN 4 seats PH 2 seats

Johor – 26 seats battle royal – BN 15 seats or less and PH 11 seats

Pahang – 14 seats and here Pahang is really a very difficult state to predict and can safely say BN and PAS will win 9 seats and PH 5 seats

Terengganu – 8 seats an anticipated fight between BN and PAS will fizzle out as Pribumi PKR and Amanah will steal the thunder from BN and PAS. The rakyat of Terengganu are now ready for change now as they are now given better alternatives to choose from. The oil boom of yester years is now a slump and previous governments have not spend the oil revenues wisely by weaning away the local economy from Oil and Gas. The jobless rate among the youth is one of the highest after Kelantan in West Malaysia. BN and PAS 2 seats maximum or less and PH 6 seats

Kelantan – 14 seats – Surprise surprise PH with Amanah PKR and Pribumi leading the GE14 Kelantan charge the BN-PAS will win only 4 seats maximum and PH will win 10 seats

Wilaya seats including KL, Putra Jaya and Labuan 13 seats and BN 2 seats and PH 11 seats

PH will win 103 seats in West Malaysia and another 30 seats in East Malaysia and total seats PH will safely win in GE 133 and this is the minimum PH will win and may add another 10 to 15 surprised seats with last minute cross overs

The only threat to PH victory is Mahathir will on seeing BN defeated will regroup all wining candidates from UMNO , Pribumi , PKR and maybe PAS into a new super Malay Party to form the next government. With Mahathir never know what happen next and it is only him and only him. Mahathir will say thank you PH , BN and PAS for a wonderful and entertaining chess game.