Can Najib Razak continue as Prime Minister as long as he wants

Q. Can Najib Razak continue as Prime Minister as long as he wants and break Dr Mahathir’s record of 22 years in office

 He and BN-PAS are already a burned toast that nobody wants

Summary answer:

(1)       Not anytime soon. Don’t hold your breath. Don’t be swayed by the social media noise that he is toast.

Anything but that is what his PR con-sultan team is telling him but the mood of the common folks who will vote is different than the opinion from Putra Jaya Ivory tower

He is at the sweetest spot of his political career again on how we look as common folks say very sweet all ripe for plucking. That means ripe to fall during a ripe durian fruit

(2)       Whether you support him or not, agree with his positions or not, Najib has played his cards masterfully slick, to divide and decimate the Opposition front.

No he did the opposite and only alienated the majority of the moderate votes who have been voting time in and time out keeping BN in power and that is why religion is like a poison chalice to PAS who lost time in and time out . Did PAS with its religious polices ever displaced UMNO as the governing party and suddenly the moderates became religious. No I do not think so and between UMNO and PAS, they are fighting for only 20% of the electoral votes and the other 80% have deserted UMNO and PAS. The political Con-sultans are paid for their rosy stories

(3) The current equilibrium, as of April 2017, bears testimony to his deft masterstrokes.

He has played the ‘Islamic law’ (Hudud) card effortlessly well, to nudge the Opposition front (Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) / Democratic Action Party (DAP) / People's Justice Party (PKR)) to self-implosion.

It was not a masterstroke but his biggest and colossal political blunder. Can a majority moderate population which have consistency voted for a secular and nationalist governments for the last 13 general elections and reject PAS a religious party which wanted to implement Islamic law as the supreme law of Malaysia and now the moderate majority all of sudden want to vote for a UMNO which have taken the place of PAS as the main religious party and bend on implementing Sharia Huduh law in Malaysia , my opinion bullocks to UMNO and PAS and a BIG NO to them come PRU/GE 14.

PAS has exited the secular Opposition

PAS was always a religious party and never a secular party and rode the coat tails of DAP and PKR to win the non-Malay votes and long the way extra parliament and state seats in Moderate west coast of West Malaysia, thanks to the compromising and pragmatic policies of TGNA the Supreme religious leader of PAS who is no longer around now as he have passed away. Pakatan Harapan’s gain with PAS exit from Pakatan Harapan because without a charismatic PAS leader like TGNA , PAS will be more a burden than an advantage to PH with PAS now spilling religious rhetoric to outdo UMNO and alienation the majority of the Muslims and the non-Malays who supported PAS to win extra seats in PRU 12 and 13.

PAS splintered to PAS and Amanah (National Trust Party). But, impact was minor. Amanah is relatively insignificant.

This is where PAS and UMNO have miscalculated big time. The PAS of PRU 12 and 13 won more seats and also retain the seats they won in earlier elections was due to the PAS moderation brought about by TGNA and the professionals who joined PAS . Now PAS is with the moderate professionals who en mass joined Amanah . These were the factor which encourages the Moderate Malays who despise UMNO and the non-Malays to support PAS candidates in PRU 12 and 13. Now they are gone to Amanah , naturally the support which PAS enjoyed in PRU 12 and 13 is shifting to Amanah and comfortable that Amanah is in a moderate opposition Grouping called Pakatan Rakyat  vs. the extremist tag team of UMNO and PAS

PAS has lost the non-Muslim vote it used to enjoy under the Opposition front banner.

Yes very true PAS lost it and so did UMNO. Both did not mind losing the Non-Malay voters because majority of seats were Malay majority in West Malaysia rural hinder land of the Malays but unknowing to PAS and UMNO or they knew it, the Moderate Malays became collateral damage and hopping the minority religious inclined voters in the Malay hinder land with sway the moderate Malays by sweet talk or bullying tactic. This is not going to happen as the parents only remain in the villages and the children are working in the urban areas and cities and only return during festivals or family occasions and exposed to a more moderate co-existence and collaborating life style in the cities without the trap of religious or racial polices . These votes are more learned and exposed to the wrong doing of the Government and also the dangers of religious laws going AWOL and restricting their personal freedom. They will also influence their parents and siblings in the Villages to vote PH because of the inequality of UMNO’s rule where Malays are also divided and marginalized by UMNO. Only the elite Malays benefit from the Larges of UMNO and these Malays are called UMNOPutras and it is a swear word now among the Majority of the disfranchised Malays

In the same vein, the non-Muslim-based (essentially Chinese-based) DAP has lost its Muslim vote it used to enjoy under the Opposition front banner.

Wrong the Non-Muslim opposition parties did not lost its Malay Muslim supporters but have increase support from them since PRU13 due to the sobering push by UMNO and PAS for a Taliban Malaysia. UMNO and PAS will be in shock when PRU 14 is called as DAP will field a record number of Malay Muslims as candidates for parliament and state elections. On the contrary BN-UMNO and PAS have lost the total Non-Malay support and also the moderate Malay-Muslim support.

The PKR is getting nowhere.

On the contrary The PKR led-State Government have been doing a marvelous job administrating the richest state in Malaysia for the last 9 years and the approval by handing more State seats to Pakatan Harapan and reduce BN-UMNO and including PAS to a mosquito party in Selangor. PKR are a very much organized party and with Azizzah and Amin as a tag team, PKR can go higher and higher. PKR will win more seats in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Johor, Melaka, Kedah, Selangor and Penang at the expense of UMNO and PAS. PKR is now very Resilience party and no longer a one man party of Anwar but a party for all Malaysians

The reconstituted Opposition front following PAS’s exit, the Pakatan Harapan, is a skeletal shadow of its former self.

On the contrary , it has reconstitute as Pakatan Harapan and have more support and with UMNO split between UMNO Baru and Pribumi joining Pakatan Harapan with EX-PM Mahathir along and PAS splitting between PAS conservation and EX-PAS moderate members forming Amanah and joining Pakatan Harapan , new Boy wonder party of former UMNO VP in Sabah Warrisan which is on course to win the majority of Sabah state assembly seats and a the majority Sabah Parliament seats are also a member party of Pakatan Harapan. All these Pakatan Harapan parties only bring in strength and on their own they are strong parties with strong support among voters and a proven track record. Where can lose. UMNO and PAS are a skeletal shadow of their former selves, and honestly I pity these once Giants and now scraping for support at the bottom end of the barrel

It struggles to appease its core non-Muslim support,

UMNO and PAS no longer need to appease their non-Muslim support and this burden is lifted from them because the Non-Muslim support have showed in PRU 12 and PRU 13 , the more extreme UMNO goes to rightwing racial and religious politics more and more will desert BN. These voters are not looking back and have move on with their lives and no amount of money carrots milk liquor is going to bring them back into BN fold. PAS are also learning that the Non-Muslim voters are a not forgetting type of voters.

While endeavoring to fend off anti-Islam accusations.

No explanations needed here as UMNO have shown by its actions that it is veering towards a theoretical state with Taliban type rule and not only the Non-Muslims are cheesed off , the moderate majority Muslims are watch with horror at what lengths UMNO is going to do for its own survival

Neither fish nor fowl. Najib suffocated it of political space to strut. Or rather, it maneuvered itself into a corner of its own making.

Yes Najib did what nobody else could before him is to kill off UMNO as a political force

If the reconstituted Opposition front gets into power by magic, the minority party PKR honcho, Anwar Ibrahim, will be Prime Minister. Errrr… howzat?

Pakatan Harapan do not need Anwar in person to win GE 14 as Anwar in Prison will be a reminder to the Malaysian voters the gross injustice UMNO have inflicted on Anwar and his family for its own political survival. Pakatan Harapan have a lot more able leaders now in DAP , Amanah , PKR , Pribumi , Warrisan and also PSRM is lending support too and please do not forget the decanted UMNO members with Najib’s leadership who are either going to abstain or voter Pakatan Harapan and will not vote PAS their mortal enemy.

The schisms will result in multi-cornered fights in elections, splitting Opposition votes, favoring Najib.

This is only wishfully thinking on the part of BN and PAS but BN-PAS will be fighting among themselves for the bottom 20% voters among themselves and further diluting their share of votes. They already or do not know that they have lost the fight as moderates to Pakatan Harapan and that is why they are into the extreme politics and like clasping to a few straws as their survival plan.

Najib has the option to fashion a Muslim-based coalition of sorts with PAS, to counter the reconstituted Opposition front, if his electoral calculus so dictates.

This is a no brainer as the trust Najib enjoyed earlier among the voters as a moderate is long gone and with his many U-Turns, the Muslim Members of Parliament from Pakatan Harapan will not even consider a coalition with the remnants of Najib led UMNO because of the deep mistrust in Najib’s politics of religious, racial and vindictive politics for this and his family’s survival. Nobody going to join him when he is defeated as he has no power to dedicate

There is no light at the end of the tunnel on the Opposition sorting out its pandemonium.

The opposition are now more organized and a coherent force that’s to PAS betrayal earlier and wanting to leave Pakatan Harapan. If PAS would have done this betrayal 2 weeks before the Malaysian GE-14, this will hand BN the GE-14 victory on a silver plate but UMNO and PAS could not wait. Only PAS and UMNO got split into 2 and the remaining UMNO and PAS a riffled with factions of Team A, B to Z. See who is laughing here and who is crying here. Go ask Najib and Hadi and next time they will wear one Pink Baju Melayu suit with both of them inside when the next time they attend a function together.

The next election is constitutionally due in August 2018. A mere political timeline blink away.

Yes and last the last GE-13, this political timeline will be used up to the maximum as Najib knows BN is domed whenever the elections are held and so better to wait out the days to the end of the present government mandate which runs out in August 2018 and hoping that by some miracle of luck his and BN’s fortunes will change for the better. He has the PM have time on his side to wait it out. I know it must be difficult on Najib BN as a whole and PAS that the evitable will happen and that is the  defeat of BN and PAS staring in front of them day in and day out

China cozying up to Najib.

China is only for regional influence and raw materials for its hungry factories in China. China is not going to interfere in who rules Malaysia as it does not want to upset the apple cart of good relations with Malaysian citizens by support a repressive government which Chain will be reminded of itself. China is only interested in projection