‘’OPEC Has Failed’’ and War is the only solution

Only choice and hope for the Middle-East states to push oil prices up is another big war and it is coming very soon with Saudi led Collations attach on Yemen ports in the coming days which will drag Iran into open war with Saudi Arabia and its allies with Russia supporting Iran and USA supporting Saudi Arabia. All know that without high oil prices, the Middle East counties will collapse and far greater calamity will hit this region. Was is lesser of the big evils and the Devil which can be controlled

By ZeroHedge - May 01, 2017, 4:01 PM CDT

Two months ago we first suggested that OPEC may be fabricating data about its production cuts - and certainly overstating the "success" of the Vienna production cut deal - by looking at the rising Chinese oil imports, and by extension, rising oil deliveries by OPEC nations.

As JPMorgan wrote back in February, the IEA estimated that OPEC crude oil production fell by 1mbd to 32.06mbd in January, suggesting an initial compliance of 90 percent with the output agreement reached at the end of 2016. The latest oil supply details released by Chinese customs on Monday suggest a reduction of supplies was not yet seen by China, the world’s largest oil importer.

In fact, quite the contrary: crude oil shipments from the 11 OPEC nations rose 4 percent from December 2016 - in a time when production was supposed to be declining - to 4.6mbd in January, accounting for 57 percent of China’s total oil imports.

Fast forward two months when Reuters analyst Clyde Russell looks at the same data and asks whether "it is time to call the crude oil output cuts by OPEC and its allies a failure?"


Echoing what we cautioned two months ago, Russell said that "certainly there is an increasing disconnect between the rhetoric of OPEC and other producers cutting output on the one hand and the reality of a well-supplied crude oil market and mixed signals on the level of global inventories on the other."


The paradox: on one hand, OPEC and non-OPEC producer nations, including Russia, have been touting the high compliance with the agreement to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from January to June. Having failed to boost the price of crude sustainably above $50, OPEC is now set to prolong the deal for another six months, with the announcement expected at a meeting scheduled for May 25. Needless to say, Russell is skeptical that merely extending what (N)OPEC tried before for another six months, will succeed.

When the deal took effect from Jan. 1, Brent traded in a narrow range for two months, before falling sharply in early March, but the support level of $50 held, with only a brief foray to an intraday low of $49.71 on March 22.

But Brent is once again testing the bottom of the post-agreement range, dropping to as low as $51.42 a barrel on Monday, as skepticism mounts over the ultimate effectiveness of the OPEC measures.

And it is here where Russell notes that, more important for determining the longer-term price outlook is to look at the amount of oil available and the levels of inventories, something we have been skeptical about since the Vienna summit, and certainly since our February article.

The math is simple: for OPEC and its allies to achieve their aim of sustainable higher prices, both global supplies and inventories have to be reduced. Yet "it's here that the main evidence of the failure of the OPEC agreement is to be found."

As the charts below demonstrate, oil shipments by tanker around the globe were at a record high in April, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity forecasts. As of last week, the data shows that an average 50.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude is being shipped in April, up from the previous record 46.1 million bpd in January. While the data excludes crude moved by pipelines, it's extremely unlikely that pipeline supplies have been cut by more than seaborne cargoes have increased.

Worse, the data also shows that Saudi Arabia, which set out to make the largest output cut among those producer’s party to the November deal, is actually increasing tanker shipments in recent months, to levels well above those that prevailed late last year.

In short, OPEC may be producing less - if one only believes the OPEC-sourced data - but actual global deliveries of oil have never been higher!

And here are the four charts in question which prompted Russell to declare the OPEC deal a failure.

(Click to enlarge)
The 1 Resource Stock To Own Now

This small company could be one of the biggest winners of the electric car boom as tech giants and hedge funds fight over the limited supply of Cobalt.

Click here to find out more
Some more details: Saudis are expected to ship 8.29 million bpd in April, up from 7.94 million bpd in March, 7.73 million bpd in February and 7.83 million bpd in January. Furthermore, Chinese customs data released last week showed that the world's biggest crude importer received higher supplies from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Angola, Iran and Iraq in March than it did the previous month.

Repeating virtually verbatim what we said two months ago, Reuters then goes on to say that "the Chinese numbers don't exactly fit in with the narrative of successful output cuts, rather they show the opposite."

For those confused, what the above means is that a picture emerges in which there is a gaping difference between reducing output and actually cutting supplies. As a result, while it is likely the case that OPEC and its allies have been in high compliance with their agreed output cuts, it hasn't necessarily translated into significantly lower shipments of crude oil.

Then there is, of course, the shale wildcard: U.S. producers outside the agreement have been increasing production and shipments. The plentiful supply of oil can be seen in global inventories, with the International Energy Agency saying recently that “inventories in industrialized countries were still 10 percent above their five-year average."
Related: South Africa’s Huge Bet On Nuclear Energy

There is some good news for oil bulls: "barrels stored in less visible places, such as in developing nations and in floating storage, do appear to be drawing down, but there is a question mark over whether this is happening fast enough to provide a basis for higher oil prices in future months. But for OPEC and its allies to achieve lasting success, they will actually have to reduce the amount of crude being shipped."

So far, not only has that not happened, but the Vienna deal participants have been aggressively boosting deliveries in behind the scenes attempts to capture market share from each other.

In a separate report from Bloomberg, according to the head of research at Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Saudi Arabia - the world’s biggest crude exporter - has been rapidly losing market share to Iraq and Iran as a result of OPEC’s agreement to curb supplies in order to bolster prices, “If you’re talking about winners, you can count Iran and Iraq,” Christof Ruehl said Wednesday at a conference in Dubai.

OPEC agreed to production limits for most of its members at a meeting in November and brought 11 other nations on board with the deal in December. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, agreed to cut output by 486,000 barrels a day while Iraq said it would cut 210,000 barrels a day. Iran was permitted to increase output by 90,000 barrels a day, according to the OPEC accord.

Ironically, U.S. shale production has increased by almost exactly the amount that Saudi production has declined by, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is losing market share not only to Iraq and Iran, but also to US oil producers.

Saudi Arabia knew it would lose share because Iran’s production was on the rebound, said Robin Mills, founder of Dubai-based consultant Qamar Energy. “The Saudis agreed to production cuts at a time when Iranian production was at a high.”

The struggle over market share is most pronounced in Asia, according to Mills and Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC. Iran and Iraq increased crude sales to China last month, while Saudi Arabia slipped behind Russia and Angola as the largest suppliers to the nation, data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs show.

“The Saudis are losing out because other countries are able to squeeze out more production,” Bell of Emirates NBD said. Saudi Arabia is cutting crude pricing to Asia to hold on to its share, Bell said. The kingdom just released its official crude pricing for June, once again cutting prices to Asia in a bid to defend its market share.

The bottom line, according to Russell, is that it doesn't matter how much you talk about reducing output or drawing down producer inventories, what ultimately matters for the price is the amount of crude that buyers can access. And right now, the data on crude flows indicates that the OPEC deal is failing, even as Saudi Arabia is facing increasing market share losses, which will sooner or later prompt the kingdom to aggressively undercut its competition once prices fail to rebound materially, sending the price of crude tumbling once again, as OPEC goes back to square one in a world where the real question market is not the future of supply, but what happens to demand.

By Zerohedge.com

A Nabbed Male Suspect Dupes Policeman, Hijacks Their Vehicle And Speeds Away!!!

Woah! I have to agree with Ling Kwan from WOB that this is probably the most badass thing anyone can do, of course in reference to GTA only la.

According to Sinchew and WOB, on 2nd of May, a 39-year-old man and a 17-year-old girl, who are believed to be relatives, broke into a warehouse in Taman Perindustrian Batu Cave.

Luckily, the alarm system went off after their rude intrusion and the warehouse staff immediately called the police.

Quick to response was a team of police which arrived at the scene shortly after around 5.36am in an MPV. The 39-year-old was the first to be caught by the police and was put into the police car. It also seems that the female suspect managed to escape for a brief moment.

Thinking of a way to escape the police, this man actually had the balls to trick the policeman by claiming that there were several more suspects on the run, apart from the 17-year-old.

MUST READ  Malaysian Indian Man Found Dead In Oil Palm Plantation After Running Away From Attackers


Believing the crook’s word, the policeman got down of the car to quickly inform his partner only to turn back and realise that he was duped. Somehow, the suspect managed to drive off the police MPV and was out of sight within seconds.



This incident was confirmed by the Gombak district police chief ACP Ali Ahmad. A follow up on the case shows that the getaway vehicle was recovered after the suspect abandoned it along the Latar Expressway. Needless to say, there wasn’t any trace of the man. Police are now on a hunt for this man.

On the other note, the female suspect was caught nearby the warehouse. It does make you wonder how did the guy manage to drive off IF he had been handcuffed.



The police are still investigating the incident and are looking into their standard operating procedures to figure out how did this happen.

Fuel prices go down by up to 10 sen from Midnight tonight at Malaysian Petrol Stations

Fuel prices go down by up to 10 sen

KUALA LUMPUR, May 3: The retail prices for petrol RON95 and RON97 from tomorrow until May 10 will be down by 10 sen, at RM2.11/ litre and RM2.39 /litre respectively .

The price of diesel will be decreased by six sen to RM2.08 /litre.

The Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Ministry ‘s posted infographics on the new retail prices on its website today. The new prices are effective from 12.01 am tomorrow.

Prior to this, for the April 27 – May 3 period, the retail price for RON95 was RM2.21/ litre, RON97 (RM2.49) and diesel, RM2.14/ litre.

Weekly pricing for the three fuels was introduced on April 1. Prior to that prices were set monthly.

Ladies BEWARE! Another Creep Caught Masturbating In Public!!!

Seriously, people?! Where have your brains and manners gone to? Why is ‘everyone’ publicly masturbating for? There are rooms and toilets for that!

Just yesterday (at press time), Chinese Teh Ping TV Facebook page shared a disturbing encounter when a random stranger pulled out his d*ck and started masturbating beside an occupied parked car.



According to the source, the video and photo were provided by a Facebook user under the name Samson Liew. They did not mention when did this incident occur but it was reported to have taken place at the Plaza 333, Penampang Sabah.

Whatever it is, do be careful when you are out there ladies! And always remember to lock your car doors!

What is even more disturbing is the fact that many other victims had commented on the same post describing similar events that had happened to them in the past. To me, this is just like a big siren going off! There’s way too many of this incidents happening and it’s purely disgusting and very worrisome for the safety of our young ones.

Just take a look at some of the comments (translated from BM):

Aida Hisham: There was once in school time, I just got back from a shop when suddenly an Indian guy gets down from his bike and flashes his penis in front of me and starts playing with it. What else was I supposed to do, I ran away. That was crazy!

Nurul Kharija: Once I thought of fixing my hijab using a (random) person’s car window…then suddenly I realised he was playing with his penis and he even winds down the window asking me to join him…I ran immediately. The second time I saw the same person at a night market with his fly open out in the air. This made me phobia!

Nuridayu Khalid: This had happened to me before. That time I went for a jog on the beach near a rented house. Though the roads were not quiet as it was in the evening when many people were out, I saw a car parked at the side, all I wanted to do was to fix my hijab but instead, I accidentally saw a man masturbating in the car. I fled the area immediately.

Yemen Could Be the Key to Solving the Iran Problem

A proposal to transfer control of a Red Sea port could have wide-ranging effects on regional tension.

If President Trump travels to Riyadh later this month, as reported, he will find that the six leaders of the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries hold widely divergent views on Iran, the extent of the Iranian threat, and how to resolve the conflict in Yemen.

This divergence has made it difficult to coordinate on a policy to challenge Iran’s bad behavior without tipping the region into open conflict. So far, such efforts have focused on improving regional defense capabilities and U.S.-GCC security cooperation. In particular, the Trump administration has indicated it will help the Saudi-led coalition fight the pro-Iranian Houthi insurgency in Yemen by providing advanced munitions as well as logistics and intelligence support.

But Oman has been a particularly reluctant partner in the GCC’s desire to confront Iran, and even the other non-Saudi GCC states favor a reduction in regional tensions.

Iranian President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif are maneuvering to exploit these rifts, seeking to isolate the Saudis from their smaller Gulf partners. But Iran itself is beset by internal policy differences over how to deal with the Gulf states. And as presidential elections approach, Rouhani is aware that heightened regional tensions weaken his hand with the hard-liners who surround Ayatollah Khamenei. Cooling the temperature in the Gulf could be his best bet to secure re-election.

Yemen may be the key to solving the GCC’s Iran problem. After last year’s Kuwait round of Yemeni negotiations ended in stalemate, the Saudi-led coalition determined that only a shift in the military balance would bring the Houthis and their allies, loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, back to the negotiating table. A strategy was derived to push the Houthis off the Red Sea coast — the Yemeni terminus of the arms-smuggling route that begins in Iran — and seize the vital port of Hodeidah.

More recently, however, concerns over the complexity of a military operation to drive an entrenched force from a city of at least one million people has led the coalition to re-consider its position. Yemen’s Hadi government, along with the Saudis and Emiratis, is signaling its willingness to accept a peaceful transfer of the city and port to a neutral third party. That party would be responsible for repairing damaged port facilities, allowing unfettered access to humanitarian relief organizations, and ensuring that the port would no longer be used for arms smuggling. There are encouraging signs that Houthi and Saleh forces may agree to this proposal.



With just weeks to go before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, an agreement to return the port of Hodeidah to full operation would be very good news for the long-suffering Yemeni population. According to UN estimates, 70 to 80 percent of the country’s humanitarian deliveries and an even greater share of commercial food and fuel imports come through the port.



Even more importantly, an agreement among the parties to transfer control of the port to a neutral party might spark a return to UN-led negotiations. UN Special Envoy Ismail Ould Chaikh Ahmed is seeking an agreement among the parties to allow the government to return to the capital, Sana’a, and resume functioning while negotiations continue over restructuring the interim government and concluding the political transition under the terms of the GCC Initiative. A side agreement to restore functionality to Yemen’s Central Bank could pump billions of Yemeni rials into the economy and help ordinary Yemenis provide for their essential needs.

Oman, which alone among the GCC states has maintained a continuing dialogue with the Houthis, can play an important role in pressing for this outcome. Moreover, Oman’s constructive relationship with Iran can also be an important lever to secure Iranian tacit cooperation. Although Iran doesn’t “control” the Houthis, Iran’s encouragement to respond positively to the coalition initiative and agree to work with the UN Special Envoy can tip the scales toward the desired outcome.

Using Omani diplomacy to achieve broader GCC goals in Yemen, and to ensure that the country is not a continuing source of instability and insecurity in the Arabian Peninsula, can thus contribute to reconciling disparate GCC views on managing Iran while bringing Yemen’s two-year old conflict to a peaceful conclusion.

Gerald Feierstein is a former U.S. ambassador to Yemen. He served as principal deputy assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs from 2013 to 2016, the final posting of a 41-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service

Kelantan State elections – UMNO and PAS to bite the dust and fade into the sunset

Malaysia – Kelantan state elections 2013 – 45 State assembly at stake and require simple majority of 23 State assembly seats out of 45 seats to form the government

PAS Won 32 seat PKR 1 seat BN 12 seats and Independents 0 seats

PAS share of votes including PKR  - 425,291 and % of votes cast 55.26 %

PAS won 15 state seats with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 7 state seats with range from 55 – 60 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 7 state seats with range from 60 – 65 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 4 state seats with range from 65 – 70 % of the Total votes cast

PKR won 1 state seat with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

BN share of votes 343,416 and % of votes cast 44.62 % 

BN won 9 state seats with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 1 state seat with range from 55 – 60 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 0 state seats with range from 60 – 65 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 2 state seats with range from 65 – 70 % of the Total votes cast

Independents won 9 State seats and share of votes 888 and % 0.12%

Forecast, factors and analysis of 3 cornered Kelantan state assembly elections

1. The political landscape since the last state assembly seats have change with PAS now openly seen to be an ally of BN and no longer with the Main opposition group Pakatan Harapan 

2. PAS have splinter into 2 with the Conservatives who are the clerics and their supporters remain in PAS

3. PAS professionals , progressives , TGNA supports have left PAS and formed Amanah and are in the Main opposition grouping of Pakatan Harapan and also 50% of PAS support in Kelantan according to various reputable surveys done in the past year in Kelantan

4. The remnants of PAS are also divided into Team A ( Support political co-operation with PAS sworn enemy BN-UMNO ) and Team B ( Do not support political co-operation with sworn enemy BN-UMNO and these are supporters of TGNA and his legacy who see better to remain in PAS and fight the present UMNO loving leadership , Team A going by PAS party divisional elections have only 30 to 35 % support from the PAS members and supporters and Team B have 65 to 70% support from PAS members and are inclined to vote against PAS team A candidate and vote Amanah or Pakatan party candidates in Kelantan state elections

5. UMNO have also split into 2 political parties – UMNO and Pribumi led by former Prime Minister Mahathir ( 40 to 50 % of UMNO Kelantan members left the party or secretly supporting Pribumi and part of the Main opposition grouping Pakatan Harapan )

6. UMNO whatever is left have now splintered into Team A PM Najib supporters against Team B DPM Zahidi supporters ( Both Team A and Team members and supporters will vote against the opposite Team candidates and support is down to Team A  55 – 60 % and Team B  40 – 45% )

7. Kelantan’s Outstation voters who always heed TGNA call to return and vote PAS in the recent State elections are working out of the state because lack of job opportunities in Kelantan and are exposed to multi-racial and multi religious environments in major cities and a very vibrant socially and economically West coast cities of West Malaysia who are more forward in their thinking due to their exposer and more likely to vote Pakatan Harapan parties in Kelantan State elections

8. The Orang Asli people are done with a Godless party PAS for destroying their tribal and ancestral lands with widespread logging and depriving the Orang Asli of their natural hunting grounds and also forest to gather food and raw materials for their life style.

9. The Malaysia Siamese who are Buddhist are seen discrimination against they with the implementation of restrictive religious laws and also support of the Muslim rebels in Southern Thailand who are killing the Thai Buddhist with more likely vote Pakatan Harapan

10. The Chinese and Indian voters are aghast with the rollback of civil liberties and restrictive business environment in Kelantan will vote Pakatan Harapan

11. The Fence sitter voters according to voting trends are 10 to 15 % of the total voters who cast their votes in each election whose swing vote makes or breaks political Party elections in the state.

12. Kelantan voters are now ripe for change and for the first time are spoiled of choices in the State elections and want development, jobs, less restrictive lives and civil liberties, rollback of infringing religious laws which stifle the young generation’s life style and will vote for the Party which can deliver these. Pakatan Harapan must be brave with their election manifesto and make Kelantan more in line with rest of the States of Malaysia and with bold Racial and religious laws roll back and make Kelantan more vibrant for business and tourism and jobs will follow once big businesses start investing and tourism flourish 

13. Oil royalties is UMNO’s Achilles heel and now also PAS’s for not demanding the oil royalty back. The PAS members who fought for the oil royalties have left and joined Amanah

14. PAS – UMNO will be fighting for the same pool of voters which in this new age will be at the bottom 25 to 30%  of the total voters in Kelantan

15. There  cornered fights UMNO is most venerable in 9 seats and PAS in 15 seats in a swing of 5% votes . The swing now be the realighnment of political parties , swing away from UMNO and PAS is between 50 to 60 % and there will be candidates from UMNO and PAS losing their election deposits 

16. Pas and UMNO Kelantan will be got flatfooted by some high profile defections once the State Assemble is dissolved and elections called. The defectors have told to put hold their plans and only defect when State elections are called as it will do maximum damage to PAS and UMNO and will not have time to regroup. Remember Mahathir the election mastermind winner is now with Pakatan Harpan and working hard for a victory for Pakatan Harapan

17. Pakatan Harapan parties Achilles Heel is greed for seats to stand in elections and must compromised on the allocation of the seats and must not seemed to be seen negotiating in public. Kelantan voters do not like greedy parties as they are simple, hardworking and honest people.

18. Must make the Kelantan Voters feel that Pakatan Harpan will this time win the Federal Parliamentary elections and voting Pakatan Harapan in State elections will be to Kelantan’s advantage as the Kelantan have seen the good administration and development of Pakatan Harapan rule in Selangor and Penang and want this duplicated in Kelantan and a friendly Federal government will pay the friendly pro-development state government the oil royalties and can stop logging to earn revenue for the state and destroy the environment  which cause massive floods year in and year out in Kelantan.

19. End of logging as logging is the main cause of yearly floods which are getting worse every year due to the devastation of the forest and water catchment areas at the source of the rivers due to rampant logging of the Forest in Kelantan

20. The Gab between the Poor and rich have widen in Kelantan with the new class of rich called PASputras and the old UMNOputras. The PASputras   have grown so distant and indifferent to the common Kelantan people and openly flaunting their wealth and the simple Kelantan are watching with aghast at the antics of the new PASputras  . Favoritism which was once a domain of UMNO and practiced by PASputras in awarding business licenses and welfare allocations to help the common people.

In Kelantan, PAS fortress turning into Amanah stronghold and Nearly 50% of PAS members in Kelantan support Amanah, survey shows

MOHAMAD Nordin Adam has led the Kampung Laut PAS branch in Tumpat, Kelantan, for the past three decades, where he played a vital role in the rise of Ahmad Yakob as a state legislator and ultimately, menteri besar.

But on February 15, this dyed-in-the-wool loyalist and his members – some of whom have been party members prior to PAS taking over Kelantan in 1990 – decided to close the branch.

Less than a month later, about 50 of them applied to join PAS splinter party Amanah, which is regarded as traitors by the Islamist party.

Kampung Laut is not alone in this defection of hard-core activists from PAS to Amanah. The wave is sweeping Kelantan from Tumpat district, which borders Thailand in the north, to the south in Pasir Puteh, next to Terengganu.


It is one reason pundits and observers predict that Kelantan PAS, under its current leadership, could lose the state that it has ruled since 1990 in the next general election.

The sense of disillusionment with Ahmad and the current Kelantan PAS administration was palpable when The Malaysian Insight spoke to activists like Nordin.

PAS was not the same without the revered Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who died in February 2015, he said.

Nik Aziz, who was fondly called “Tok Guru”, was Kelantan menteri besar from 1990 until May 2013. He led Kelantan PAS as state commissioner from 1978 until 2013. He was the PAS spiritual leader from 1991 until his death.

Ahmad, who is the present MB and state PAS commissioner, was elected in May 2013, after the 13th general election.

Mohamad Nordin Adam was a hard-core PAS activist who resigned from the Islamist party in February. – The Malaysian Insight pic, April 1, 2017. 
Mohamad Nordin Adam was a hard-core PAS activist who resigned from the Islamist party in February. – The Malaysian Insight pic, April 1, 2017.
“PAS under Nik Aziz and PAS under Ahmad are different... while Nik Aziz was close to the people, Mat Yakob is distant – uncaring about the people’s problems.

“When Nik Aziz was MB, he went everywhere to meet people who were struggling. That has not happened since Ahmad Yakob took over as MB,” Nordin told The Malaysian Insight at his home near Kampung Laut recently.

The Kampung Laut folk were also unhappy with Ahmad’s handling of the heritage project in their village, he said.

“We have simply lost faith in PAS and the state government under Ahmad’s leadership,” he said.

Nordin has been a grass-roots leader since 1983, serving as Tumpat PAS deputy vice-chairman for several terms even before Ahmad became active in the party.

Ahmad only contested as a PAS candidate for the first time in the 1995 polls and Nordin was among those who helped Ahmad rise to his current positions.

A party veteran like Nordin leaving PAS with this followers and people getting upset with the state administration are clear signs that not all is well in Kelantan – PAS’s traditional seat and biggest stronghold.

The defection in Kampung Laut should also be a cause for concern as it is deemed the PAS “heartland” in Kelantan. The branch is in the Pasir Pekan state seat held by Ahmad.

Kampung Laut is the largest polling district in the state constituency, with more than 3,000 voters who mainly work in the cottage industry of producing serunding and dodol.

The erosion of confidence in the PAS leadership is also seen in other villages in Kelantan.

In Pasir Puteh, traders in the district had issues with the state government after they were forced to move into a new market complex, which did not meet their needs.

The unhappiness among the traders – many who supported PAS and Umno earlier – caused them to shift their support to Amanah, whose leaders appeared more interested in the people’s grouses.

One of them is Kelantan Amanah adviser Datuk Husam Musa, another former PAS leader, who has been speaking up for traders to protect their interests.

“The main Amanah supporters now are the youth while the older folks support PAS,” said a Kota Baru hotel employee, who also agreed that PAS had no chance since Nik Aziz’s death.

“Nik Aziz was more flexible in his administration, unlike the ones now who prefer to punish,” the man told The Malaysian Insight.

There is also the “reshuffled” opposition pact, Pakatan Harapan (PH), to factor in.

PAS is no longer a PH member following its public fallout with DAP in 2015 over its insistence on implementing the shariah penal code in Kelantan.

The pact is now made up of PKR, DAP, Amanah and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new party – Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.

When Dr Mahathir visited Kelantan on March 15, he stopped at Kampung Laut, and the people went out in droves to meet the nation’s longest-serving prime minister.

Kelantan Amanah election bureau deputy director Khir Zahri Abdul Ghani said his party had a fighting chance at GE14, estimating they could win up to 15 state seats out of Kelantan’s total 45.

“Our strength is equal to PAS and Umno’s in Kelantan... I can say it is 30:30:30 for Amanah, PAS and BN.

“The remaining 10% of the electorate will determine which party wins the most seats.”

Khir said PH would either face a three-cornered fight with PAS and BN, or engage in a BN-PAS pact in a straight fight.

“I think our chances will be better if we are engaged in straight fights,” said the former PAS Kelantan election secretary. – April 1, 2017.

Nearly 50% of PAS members in Kelantan support Amanah, survey shows

lham Centre’s survey has shown that nearly half of PAS backers in Kelantan will be supporting Amanah in the coming general election. – The Malaysian Insider filepic, November 5, 2015.Although PAS’s mammoth rally in Kota Baru, Kelantan last month showed that the Islamist party was still relevant in the Malay heartland and resonated with young Malay Muslim supporters, an independent research firm disagreed.

Its recent survey shows that the party is expected to lose nearly 50% of its support in Kelantan during the next general election (GE).

Ilham Centre executive chairman Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar said the survey found that many PAS members and supporters in Kelantan were expected to throw their support behind Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) in GE14, due by 2018.

These were mostly from the younger generation, professionals and former supporters of Muslim parties Berjasa and Parti Hizbul Muslimin Malaysia (Hamim), he said.

He said according to the survey results, 35% of PAS members in Kelantan who supported Amanah were still in the Islamist party as they did not want to cause problems for the PAS-led state government.

Some 15% of PAS members in Kelantan are said to have already joined the splinter party, which was formed by some of PAS’s most popular leaders dubbed the progressives after they lost heavily in the June party polls.

“We find activists from Berjasa and Hamim have joined Amanah, alongside professionals and youths in Kelantan,” Hisomuddin told The Malaysian Insider.

He added, however, that many Amanah supporters who held positions in the state government, including city councillors, village chiefs and other political portfolios, were still in PAS.

“They do not want to cause any problems by declaring they will join Amanah.”

Amanah’s largest group of members come from Kelantan, accounting for 8,000 of the total 30,000 members since the launch of the party on September 16.

Amanah Kelantan chairman Datuk Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah is confident his party can win in a three-cornered fight in Demit, one of PAS strongest state seats. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Nazir Sufari, November 5, 2015.Amanah Kelantan chairman Datuk Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah is confident his party can win in a three-cornered fight in Demit, one of PAS strongest state seats. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Nazir Sufari, November 5, 2015.Amanah Kelantan chairman Datuk Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah, meanwhile, said he was confident the new splinter party would win even in a three-cornered fight in Demit, one of PAS strongest state seats, which comes under the Kubang Kerian parliament constituency.

“We are confident of winning in Demit given the candidate we have there,” Wan Rahim told The Malaysian Insider.

He said, however, that he did not want Amanah to be blamed if the Kelantan state government, built by Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat since 1990, lost power.

That was why, he said that from the beginning, he had pushed for talks with PAS on avoiding three-cornered fights between PAS, Amanah, which formed Pakatan Harapan with DAP and PKR, and Barisan Nasional (BN) in Kelantan.

He added that Amanah was even prepared to sit out any of the state seats if an agreement could be reached between the two parties.

“But PAS is not bothered with our offer,” Wan Rahim said when met after a recent dialogue session organised by Amanah with professionals in Kelantan.

He said the programme, which targeted 70 professionals in the state, including doctors, pharmacists and lawyers, received overwhelming response.

Those who attended were mostly doctors and lecturers from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) and the USM Hospital.

One of the participants, Dr Salwa Ghani, who is a PAS member, said she was mulling over giving up her membership to join Amanah.

“Most of my friends have joined Amanah and they have asked me to join them.

“For now, I am still with PAS but I am considering.

“When Tok Guru was around, we professionals felt very appreciated, but now it seems not so much,” she said, referring to influential PAS spiritual leader, Nik Aziz, who died in February this year. – November 5, 2015.


Share this: