Kelantan State elections – UMNO and PAS to bite the dust and fade into the sunset

Malaysia – Kelantan state elections 2013 – 45 State assembly at stake and require simple majority of 23 State assembly seats out of 45 seats to form the government

PAS Won 32 seat PKR 1 seat BN 12 seats and Independents 0 seats

PAS share of votes including PKR  - 425,291 and % of votes cast 55.26 %

PAS won 15 state seats with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 7 state seats with range from 55 – 60 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 7 state seats with range from 60 – 65 % of the Total votes cast

PAS won 4 state seats with range from 65 – 70 % of the Total votes cast

PKR won 1 state seat with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

BN share of votes 343,416 and % of votes cast 44.62 % 

BN won 9 state seats with range from 49 – 55 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 1 state seat with range from 55 – 60 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 0 state seats with range from 60 – 65 % of the Total votes cast

BN won 2 state seats with range from 65 – 70 % of the Total votes cast

Independents won 9 State seats and share of votes 888 and % 0.12%

Forecast, factors and analysis of 3 cornered Kelantan state assembly elections

1. The political landscape since the last state assembly seats have change with PAS now openly seen to be an ally of BN and no longer with the Main opposition group Pakatan Harapan 

2. PAS have splinter into 2 with the Conservatives who are the clerics and their supporters remain in PAS

3. PAS professionals , progressives , TGNA supports have left PAS and formed Amanah and are in the Main opposition grouping of Pakatan Harapan and also 50% of PAS support in Kelantan according to various reputable surveys done in the past year in Kelantan

4. The remnants of PAS are also divided into Team A ( Support political co-operation with PAS sworn enemy BN-UMNO ) and Team B ( Do not support political co-operation with sworn enemy BN-UMNO and these are supporters of TGNA and his legacy who see better to remain in PAS and fight the present UMNO loving leadership , Team A going by PAS party divisional elections have only 30 to 35 % support from the PAS members and supporters and Team B have 65 to 70% support from PAS members and are inclined to vote against PAS team A candidate and vote Amanah or Pakatan party candidates in Kelantan state elections

5. UMNO have also split into 2 political parties – UMNO and Pribumi led by former Prime Minister Mahathir ( 40 to 50 % of UMNO Kelantan members left the party or secretly supporting Pribumi and part of the Main opposition grouping Pakatan Harapan )

6. UMNO whatever is left have now splintered into Team A PM Najib supporters against Team B DPM Zahidi supporters ( Both Team A and Team members and supporters will vote against the opposite Team candidates and support is down to Team A  55 – 60 % and Team B  40 – 45% )

7. Kelantan’s Outstation voters who always heed TGNA call to return and vote PAS in the recent State elections are working out of the state because lack of job opportunities in Kelantan and are exposed to multi-racial and multi religious environments in major cities and a very vibrant socially and economically West coast cities of West Malaysia who are more forward in their thinking due to their exposer and more likely to vote Pakatan Harapan parties in Kelantan State elections

8. The Orang Asli people are done with a Godless party PAS for destroying their tribal and ancestral lands with widespread logging and depriving the Orang Asli of their natural hunting grounds and also forest to gather food and raw materials for their life style.

9. The Malaysia Siamese who are Buddhist are seen discrimination against they with the implementation of restrictive religious laws and also support of the Muslim rebels in Southern Thailand who are killing the Thai Buddhist with more likely vote Pakatan Harapan

10. The Chinese and Indian voters are aghast with the rollback of civil liberties and restrictive business environment in Kelantan will vote Pakatan Harapan

11. The Fence sitter voters according to voting trends are 10 to 15 % of the total voters who cast their votes in each election whose swing vote makes or breaks political Party elections in the state.

12. Kelantan voters are now ripe for change and for the first time are spoiled of choices in the State elections and want development, jobs, less restrictive lives and civil liberties, rollback of infringing religious laws which stifle the young generation’s life style and will vote for the Party which can deliver these. Pakatan Harapan must be brave with their election manifesto and make Kelantan more in line with rest of the States of Malaysia and with bold Racial and religious laws roll back and make Kelantan more vibrant for business and tourism and jobs will follow once big businesses start investing and tourism flourish 

13. Oil royalties is UMNO’s Achilles heel and now also PAS’s for not demanding the oil royalty back. The PAS members who fought for the oil royalties have left and joined Amanah

14. PAS – UMNO will be fighting for the same pool of voters which in this new age will be at the bottom 25 to 30%  of the total voters in Kelantan

15. There  cornered fights UMNO is most venerable in 9 seats and PAS in 15 seats in a swing of 5% votes . The swing now be the realighnment of political parties , swing away from UMNO and PAS is between 50 to 60 % and there will be candidates from UMNO and PAS losing their election deposits 

16. Pas and UMNO Kelantan will be got flatfooted by some high profile defections once the State Assemble is dissolved and elections called. The defectors have told to put hold their plans and only defect when State elections are called as it will do maximum damage to PAS and UMNO and will not have time to regroup. Remember Mahathir the election mastermind winner is now with Pakatan Harpan and working hard for a victory for Pakatan Harapan

17. Pakatan Harapan parties Achilles Heel is greed for seats to stand in elections and must compromised on the allocation of the seats and must not seemed to be seen negotiating in public. Kelantan voters do not like greedy parties as they are simple, hardworking and honest people.

18. Must make the Kelantan Voters feel that Pakatan Harpan will this time win the Federal Parliamentary elections and voting Pakatan Harapan in State elections will be to Kelantan’s advantage as the Kelantan have seen the good administration and development of Pakatan Harapan rule in Selangor and Penang and want this duplicated in Kelantan and a friendly Federal government will pay the friendly pro-development state government the oil royalties and can stop logging to earn revenue for the state and destroy the environment  which cause massive floods year in and year out in Kelantan.

19. End of logging as logging is the main cause of yearly floods which are getting worse every year due to the devastation of the forest and water catchment areas at the source of the rivers due to rampant logging of the Forest in Kelantan

20. The Gab between the Poor and rich have widen in Kelantan with the new class of rich called PASputras and the old UMNOputras. The PASputras   have grown so distant and indifferent to the common Kelantan people and openly flaunting their wealth and the simple Kelantan are watching with aghast at the antics of the new PASputras  . Favoritism which was once a domain of UMNO and practiced by PASputras in awarding business licenses and welfare allocations to help the common people.